In 2017 there is election proposed in 4 states. These elections are going to be very crucial for the many of political parties, specially AAP.Arvind Kejriwal's performance in Punjab will decide his role in 2019 general election. BJP performance in UP will be deciding factor for Modi wave, whether it is going to work in 2019 too or not. And the Congress resurrection will also be decided by the UP election.
In the first half of 2017 these two state is going to be crucial for other two state election also which is possibly in the second half of the year.Goa and Gujrat election will get influenced by the performance of the BJP in UP and Punjab with his ally SAD. In Punjab there is anti-incumbency is the issue for Akali which is going to harm Akali.Akali has a face of Modi only, but it would be the matter of concern for the people of Punjab that whether they vote for BJP or Modi or not. Vote know that BJP is the only ally, the main role in the alliance is of Akali, so they have to decide to whom the gonna vote.By winning 4 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab AAP has a hope to do well or probably make Govt. in Punjab but they also have aware of the fact that people of Delhi are not happy with AAP Govt. in Delhi. So there would a feedback, which can be an important factor, in Punjab election.But AAP should understand the fact that every time they can't raise Delhi issue to win an election.
In Punjab people has their perspective about election and vote, so they(AAP) should focus on the local issue.In UP Amit Shah is silently working on his social engineering in with he had got success in 2014. Amit Shah knows that BJP can not win only by focusing on development agenda and Modi's name.UP has its social-political mathematics, so he has to deal with it separately.In UP caste matter a lot in the election.We talk about development, infrastructure etc., but as we saw in Bihar that how caste plays a key role, in up also the same pattern works.UP election would be the reality check for BJP and the Congress it would be the last hope before 2019 election.And there are two big regional parties which can spoil the game for the National parties.SP and BSP, we all know that they have strong vote bank which is their strong plus point.SP has a good young and energetic CM candidate as Akhilesh Yadav but somewhere it seems they are losing the ground because of poor law and order and there also some anti-incumbency is growing.BJP's Dayashankar Singh has given Mayawati oxygen by using an abusive word for him.It seemed that Mayawati is going to raise this very strongly.But the way Dayashankar's wife came in the role and the way BSP worker has become abusive for Dayashankar's family and started chanting some shameless slogan, which can't be written here, Mayawati somewhere miss the plot. We should not forget that Mayawati's massive success in 2008 was because of upper caste vote but this time BJP has turned the table by raising the issue of Dayashankar's family who is being harassed by BSP workers.This has become Thakur vs. Dalit which is going to affect negatively for BSP.
SP has to combat the issue of anti-incumbency because BJP and others are going to raise the issue of Mathura, Bulandshahar rape, and Kairana(near MUZAFFARNAGAR) exodus in the election very forcibly.After Dadri case, there is some anger in a particular community for SP Govt. which used get resurrected by the continuous speech by Azam Khan.BJP would want this election to get polarized, and others would try to be secular for their various vote bank.All in all as per the various survey and prediction, In UP there is the straight fight between BJP and SP and In Punjab, AAP is going to give tough competition to SAD+BJP and Congress as well.